that sinking feeling

that's the headline of a recent business week cover story about the deflating housing market, and how many homebuilders are slashing prices as a result. today's union tribune article gives a local perspective on things, and focuses on the downtown condo situation.
there's an interesting section in the article concerning a buyer at the legend condo project (shown above) next to petco park, which began move-ins recently. he tried to pull out of his 1.4 million dollar penthouse purchase but was warned he could lose part of his down payment. so he's got a 6K/month mortgage on the new unit, is negatively amoritized on his house in del mar, and is a mortgage broker in an industry in a tailspin. he's hoping to find someone to lease his place to, but i'm guessing he won't get near 6K/month. needless to say, he's "struggling".
this sounds similar to a friend of ours who bought a million dollar unit there. from what i've heard there are some financial issues in his case too, possibly related to a couple of additional units he owns in the park west project nearby. my point is, these are the people who are buying condos downtown? throw in the recent ny times article on all the second-home buyers downtown, and it's a sobering picture. i'm excited about all the condo projects that are being completed now, but will there be anyone living in them once the banks come calling?
UPDATE: incorrect pic fixed, thanks commenter!

6 Comments:
Hi, Paul,
The housing market in SD seems like it will be scary for a while. I was freaked out enough when I bought my home in 2001, even though I had a very good job. When prices really skyrocketed, I wondered too, "Who are all these people buying? Do they all really make that much more money than me?"
The answer to that second question is no (in general). Home prices have grown much more quickly than incomes have grown.
A good analysis is here:
http://piggington.com/historical_home_prices_payments_rents_rates
It seems that the bubble won't be popped until prices go back down to 2002-2003 levels. Possibly worse.
I hate to see good people suffer, but San Diego is overdue for a big correction in housing prices. I don't have much sympathy for all the second home buyers and investors who thought they were going to get rich. And I bristle at the thought of any government bailout. If you are an investor or flipper or just bit off more than you can chew, then live in the bed you've made for yourself. Don't socialize the costs onto those of us who balked at the high prices and sat on the sidelines saving our money for just such a time as this. My two cents.
you say in your blog that the "picture above" is the Legend, but it's not; it's a picture of the San Diego Setai Hotel (formerly the diegan)
fixed it, thanks!
Great blog Paul. I agree that many people bought at the wrong time and with poor judgment. At the same time, I know plenty of people who hve bought homes, second homes, fifth homes, etc. that are very happy with their Downtown condos.
Prices have come down, but there doesn't seem to be a "bubble." A bubble needs to have a reason to pop - is San Diego going to lose its great weather? Or its location? Will the freeways turn into the traffic-jammed 405 like in LA?
Earlier this year, you saw developers and sellers throwing cars, tv's and all kinds of incentives at buyers. Most of that is gone now and prices seem to have leveled off - lower than they were 1-2 years ago, but flat.
And depending on what building you buy into, I think Downtown San Diego is one of the best investments you can make right now(just don't plan on selling in a few years).
Here's something you might find interesting...
http://www.sandiegoh.com/2007/10/03/san-diego-is/
thanks denny. lots of good stuff on your blog too (especially your pic, ;-) ). you make some valid points, but so do the doom and gloomers. and we did hear lots of optimism from realtors right up to the recent drop. someone was saying in the business section of the UT the other day that it might not turn around until 2010.
i agree that san diego is a very desirable place to live, but that's balanced by whether the people that work here can afford to live here. and there's probably a finite number of people who can support the market through second home purchases. time will tell...
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